阿基諾暗喻中國領土野心堪比納粹
2014年02月07日
馬尼拉——周二，菲律賓總統貝尼尼奧·S·阿基諾三世
(Benigno S. Aquino
III)呼籲世界各國做出更多努力，支持菲律賓抵制中國對菲律賓附近海域提出的強硬主權要求，並且把現狀與1938年的情況進行了對比，當時，西方國家沒
有支持捷克斯洛伐克反抗希特拉對捷克的領土要求。
在總統府的木牆板音樂間里，阿基諾總統在長達90分鐘的採訪中說，和捷克斯洛伐克一樣，菲律賓也面臨著一個比自己強大得多的國家的要求，領土面臨蠶食，因此需要各國對國際法治提供更強大的支持，幫助本國進行反抗。
「如果我們現在對自己心目中的不義之事說『是』，怎麼能保證這樣的不義不會變本加厲呢？」他說，「你們什麼時候才會說『到此為止』？全世界都必須說出來——請記住，正是為了取悅希特拉進而阻止第二次世界大戰，蘇台德地區才被讓了出去。」
周三，中國政府對阿基諾的上述言論反應強烈。官方通訊社新
華社發表了署名評論文章，稱阿基諾的應對方式具有煽動性，令人遺憾。該評論文章稱，中國在該地區的主權要求有確鑿的歷史依據，「一個專業、成熟的菲律賓領
導人可以與中國開展對話協商，尋求解決領土爭端，由此為自己的國家帶來更多利益。」
中國的軍備建設和領土野心在亞洲國家領導人當中引發了警惕，阿基諾的言論是這種情緒迄今最明顯的體現之一。這也是近幾周第二次有亞洲領導人主動將該地區局勢與世界大戰前夕相比。
上月，日本首相安倍晉三(Shinzo Abe)在瑞士達沃斯的言論引起了轟動。安倍晉三當時表示，1914年的英德兩國儘管有着密切的經濟聯繫，但卻依然開戰——當年的兩國關係與目前的中日關係非常相似。
日本一直深陷與中國日益緊張的對峙，引發對峙的是東海一些無人居住的島嶼。去年，當中國宣布有權監控一片廣闊海域上方的空域時，就連對中國的主權要求一直比較沉默的韓國也表達了警惕情緒。相關海域包括日韓兩國聲稱擁有主權的一些地區。
中國對南海近菲律賓海域的岩石、淺灘和漁場主權訴求一直不太高調，儘管如此，中國在該地區的行動卻更為迅速。
2012年，菲律賓軍隊在與中國的一場對峙中撤離後，菲律
賓似乎已經失去了對黃岩島的實際控制。黃岩島是一片礁石，也是最著名的爭議地區之一。菲律賓撤軍是經由美國調解達成的一項協議的一部分。協議規定雙方同時
撤退，通過談判解決爭端。然而，中國軍隊留了下來，取得了控制權。在擔任總統的近四年時間裡，現年53歲的阿基諾在一個曾被稱為「東亞病夫」的國家裡取得
的成就超出了他的國家及其所在地區的預期。2009年，他的母親、前總統科拉松·C·阿基諾(Corazon C.
Aquino)去世，隨之而來的舉國同情幫助他在次年登上了總統之位，儘管那時的他還是一個比較低調的參議員。
政治分析人士稱，他領導的政府打擊並減輕了腐敗，腐敗是阻
礙菲律賓發展的因素之一。關於這方面的變化，一個實際的標誌是，菲律賓每1億比索（約合1340萬元人民幣）支出中，能用於鋪設公路的資金多於過去——資
金因貪腐官員和無能低效而流失的時代，最終掃除了制約商業的一個障礙。
所有大型信用評級機構給菲律賓的都是「投資級」，但最近，因為擔心中國經濟會進一步放緩，菲律賓國內和其他新興經濟體的股價和幣值走低，帶來了直接的挑戰。
阿基諾的另一項成就是，上個月，他派出的談判人員與穆斯林聚居的南部島嶼棉蘭老島的主要抵抗組織達成了一項重要的和平協議。但該協議依然像是一場賭博；它取得成功的重要前提是該穆斯林組織有能力約束住那些規模較小的抵抗組織，而那些較小的組織幾乎立即對該協議表示了譴責。
雖然取得了這些成功，但是阿基諾仍然因為去年政府在破壞性極大的颱風來臨初期反應遲緩而備受批評。他說，風暴過於猛烈，超出了菲律賓許多準備工作的應對能力。
此外，他對土地改革的態度並非特別堅決——阿基諾家族是菲
律賓擁有土地最多的家族之一——他更青睞的方案是把菲律賓政府的社會開支更多地轉移到貧窮的農村地區。沃爾登·貝洛(Walden
Bello)雖然是總統執政聯盟的一名議員，但卻仍然表示，包括他自己在內，許多人都認為「土地改革缺乏實際進展是貧困率保持」在高水平的「根本原因之
一」。
分析人士說，一些傳統家族擁有幾近封建領主的權力，其中有些還有軍隊背景，這是阻礙增長的又一因素。但阿基諾表示，他正試圖說服這些家族，讓他們相信，降低封閉程度會帶來更大的繁榮。
阿基諾的六年任期將於2016年屆滿，根據法律，他不可尋求連任，人們由此擔心，他的變革能否繼續下去。
阿基諾在話題廣泛的周二採訪中說，他認為菲律賓和美國即將達成一項耽擱已久的協議，該協議將允許更多美國軍隊在菲律賓駐紮，提高菲律賓的安全保障。但菲律賓的政治精英對這一話題仍然持有爭議，由於菲律賓曾被美國佔領，相關的記憶讓他們對建立更密切的軍事聯繫感到擔心。
美國之所以要推動這項協議，是為了協助它的亞洲再平衡策略。雖然中國正在崛起，美國仍希望在亞洲保持強大的影響力。
提到菲律賓與中國的矛盾時，阿基諾說，他的國家絕不會放棄位於菲中兩國之間海域的任何領土。
中國稱，幾個世紀以前的地圖表明，中國早就對差不多遠至婆羅洲的南海海域宣示了主權。中國正試圖利用它日漸擴充的龐大艦隊對南海的礁石和島嶼進行有效控制，這種策略可以強化它的法律地位。
同時，中國強烈反對把《聯合國海洋法公約》(United
Nations Convention on the Law of the
Sea)的規定和數值公式應用到為數眾多的礁石和島嶼之上，那些礁石和島嶼離菲律賓等國比離中國近很多。北京的官員還反對多邊磋商，傾向於與東南亞的國家
單獨展開雙邊對話，中國領導人可以通過這種策略施加更大的壓力。
中國一直在加強軍備，而阿基諾指出，菲律賓戰鬥機最後一次飛行已經是2005年的事情，而那架飛機的年代可以追溯到越戰以前。菲律賓的海軍和海岸警衛隊規模很小，大部分艦船的年代都可以追溯到二戰以前。
與中國之間的問題遠不止關於南海的爭端。香港政府得到了位
於北京的中國外交部的大力支持，計劃從周三開始停止菲律賓外交或公務護照持有人14天免簽證訪港的政策。2010年，馬尼拉發生了劫持人質的暴力事件，營
救工作最終失敗，共導致8名港人死亡。香港此後一直要求菲律賓國家政府就此事進行道歉，前述制裁便是相關要求的部分內容。
阿基諾在首次公開回應制裁時說，他並不打算道歉，稱這樣做就意味着菲律賓要承擔法律責任。他還指出，中國也沒有給死於中國暴力事件的菲律賓人的家屬提供補償。
目前尚未結婚的阿基諾住在總統府後面的一座小別墅里，沒有住進奢華的總統府。他說，每晚睡覺之前，他都會聽音樂，通常是聽爵士樂，或者繼續發揮自己歷史愛好者的熱忱，閱讀載有二戰等內容的軍事雜誌，以此放鬆。
他說，他最近閱讀了關於20世紀30年代末前捷克斯洛伐克領導人身處困境的內容，並且發現，他自己目前面臨的中國挑戰與前述情況「有些」相似。他說，1938年時，綏靖政策沒能奏效；捷克交出蘇台德區還不到6個月，德國就佔領了捷克斯洛伐克剩餘的大部分領土。
他說，菲律賓絕不會做相似的退讓。「你或許勢力強大，」他在提到中國時說，「但這並不代表你一定是對的。」
翻譯：陳亦亭、陳柳Philippine Leader Sounds Alarm on China
February 07, 2014
MANILA — President Benigno
S. Aquino III called on Tuesday for nations around the world to do more
to support the Philippines in resisting China’s assertive claims to the
seas near his country, drawing a comparison to the West’s failure to
support Czechoslovakia against Hitler’s demands for Czech land in 1938.
Like Czechoslovakia, the
Philippines faces demands to surrender territory piecemeal to a much
stronger foreign power and needs more robust foreign support for the
rule of international law if it is to resist, President Aquino said in a
90-minute interview in the wood-paneled music room of the presidential
palace.
“If we say yes to something
we believe is wrong now, what guarantee is there that the wrong will
not be further exacerbated down the line?” he said. “At what point do
you say, ‘Enough is enough’? Well, the world has to say it — remember
that the Sudetenland was given in an attempt to appease Hitler to
prevent World War II.”
The Chinese government
reacted strongly on Wednesday to Mr. Aquino’s remarks. The official news
agency, Xinhua, published a signed commentary calling Mr. Aquino’s
approach inflammatory and unfortunate. China’s claims in the region have
a sound historical foundation, the commentary said, and “a professional
and mature Philippine leader could do more good to his country by
seeking to resolve the territorial disputes with China through dialogue
and consultation.”
Mr. Aquino’s remarks are
among the strongest indications yet of alarm among Asian heads of state
about China’s military buildup and territorial ambitions, and the second
time in recent weeks that an Asian leader has volunteered a comparison
to the prelude to world wars.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan caused a stir
in Davos, Switzerland, when he noted last month that Britain and
Germany went to war in 1914 even though they had close economic ties —
much as China and Japan have now.
Japan has been locked in an
increasingly tense standoff with China over uninhabited islands in the
East China Sea, and even South Korea, which has been quieter about
Chinese claims, expressed alarm last year when Beijing announced that it
had the right to police the skies above a vast area of ocean, including areas claimed by Japan and South Korea.
While China’s efforts to claim rocks, shoals and fishing grounds off the coast of the Philippines in the South China Sea have been less high profile, the Chinese have moved faster there.
The Philippines already
appears to have lost effective control of one of the best-known places
of contention, a reef called Scarborough Shoal, after Philippine forces
withdrew during a standoff with China in 2012. They left as part of an
American-mediated deal in which both sides were to pull back while the
dispute was negotiated. Chinese forces remained, however, and gained
control. In his nearly four years as president, Mr. Aquino, 53, has
exceeded expectations, in his country and the region, for what he could
accomplish in a nation once known as the “sick man of Asia.” He was a
fairly low-key senator when he was propelled into the presidency in 2010
by a wave of national sympathy after the death the year before of his
mother, former President Corazon C. Aquino.
Political analysts say his
administration has fought and reduced the corruption that played a role
in holding the Philippines back. In one practical measure of that
change, the country has been able to pave more roads per 100 million
pesos in spending (about $2.2 million) than before — when funds were
lost to corrupt officials and incompetence — finally addressing an
impediment to commerce.
All of the major
credit-rating agencies now give the Philippines an investment-grade
rating, though the recent downturn in share prices and currencies here
and in other emerging markets, on fears of further slowing of the
Chinese economy, poses an immediate challenge.
In another accomplishment,
Mr. Aquino’s negotiators concluded a major peace agreement last month
with the main resistance group on Mindanao, the heavily Muslim southern
island. Still, the deal remains something of a gamble; it is based in
good part on the Muslim group’s ability to hold in check smaller
resistance groups, which criticized the pact almost immediately.
Despite those successes, Mr. Aquino was criticized for the country’s slow initial response to last year’s devastating typhoon. He said the storm was so powerful that it overwhelmed the Philippines’ many preparations.
He has also been less
aggressive on land reform — the Aquinos are among the country’s biggest
landowning families — and he has preferred to shift more of the
government’s social spending to poor villages instead. Walden Bello,
although a congressman in the president’s governing coalition, said he
was one of many who believed that “the lack of real progress on land
reform is a real reason why poverty rates have remained” at high levels.
Analysts say the almost
feudal power of some entrenched families, including some with militias,
is a further obstacle to growth. But Mr. Aquino said he was trying to
convince the families that becoming less insular would foster greater
prosperity.
Mr. Aquino is prevented by
law from seeking re-election when his six-year term expires in 2016,
raising uncertainty about whether his changes will continue.
In the wide-ranging
interview on Tuesday, Mr. Aquino said he thought the Philippines and the
United States were close to a long-delayed deal that would allow more
American troops to rotate through the Philippines, enhancing his
country’s security. But the subject remains controversial among the
political elite in the Philippines, with memories of the country’s past
as an American possession making them wary of closer military ties.
The United States is
pushing for the deal to aid in its rebalance to Asia, where it hopes to
retain a strong influence despite China’s rise.
Speaking of the
Philippines’ own tensions with the Chinese, Mr. Aquino said his country
would not renounce any of its possessions in the sea between it and
China.
China contends that
centuries-old maps show that it had an early claim to the South China
Sea almost to Borneo. It is trying to use its large and growing fleet to
exercise effective control over reefs and islands in the sea, a
strategy that could strengthen its legal position.
At the same time, China has
strongly resisted applying the procedures and numerical formulas of the
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea to the many reefs and
islands that lie much closer to countries like the Philippines than to
China. Officials in Beijing also oppose multilateral discussions,
preferring bilateral talks with individual countries in Southeast Asia,
an approach that allows Chinese leaders to apply greater pressure.
While China has been
improving its military, Mr. Aquino noted that the last flight by a
Philippine fighter jet was in 2005 and that the plane dated from before
the Vietnam War. Most of the country’s tiny naval and coast guard fleet
dates to World War II.
The difficulties with China
extend beyond the arguments over the South China Sea. The Hong Kong
government, with enthusiastic backing from the Chinese Foreign Ministry
in Beijing, plans to stop allowing 14-day visa-free visits by Filipino
diplomats and officials starting Wednesday. The sanctions are part of a
long-running demand by Hong Kong that the national government of the
Philippines apologize over a violent episode in 2010 in which a hostage rescue attempt in Manila failed, leaving eight Hong Kong citizens dead.
In his first public
response to the sanctions, Mr. Aquino said he had no plans to apologize,
saying that doing so could create a legal liability and noting that
China had not paid compensation to the families of Filipinos who have
died in violence there.
Mr. Aquino, who is not
married, lives in a small cottage behind the presidential palace instead
of in the luxurious palace itself. He said he tries to relax before
going to sleep each night either by listening to music — often jazz — or
pursuing his passion as an amateur historian, reading military
journals, some about World War II.
While recently reading
about the predicament of Czechoslovakia’s leaders in the late 1930s, he
said, he saw a parallel “in a sense” to his own problems now in facing
challenges from China. Appeasement did not work in 1938, he noted;
within six months of the surrender of the Sudetenland, Germany occupied
most of the rest of Czechoslovakia.
The Philippines, he said,
is determined not to make similar concessions. “You may have the might,”
he said of China, “but that does not necessarily make you right.”
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